A new working paper “Behaviour, political inaction and the adaptation implementation gap: Unlocking flood and drought preparedness in public finance through a beta application of the Multi-Actor Behaviour Journey methodology” has just been published by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science. The paper was authored by Kate Gannon, Katarzyna Mikolajczak, Abel Dugange, Herbert Kashililah, V. Tondelo Gungulundi, Will Ingram, Katharine Vincent, Gloria Kanyumba, Walter Chinangwa, Chisomo Chona, Jessica Leech, Charles Wight, Zak Essa and Declan Conway and produced as part of the Behavioural Adaptation for Water Security and Inclusion (BASIN) project.
The paper presents the first empirical test of the Multi-Actor Behaviour Journey (MABEJ) methodology, in its beta form. MABEJ traces how interdependent behaviours across sequential policy steps produce cumulative system outcomes, showing where objectives are deprioritised or displaced and where leverage points exist. The study applies MABEJ to the chronic under-prioritisation of flood and drought preparedness in Tanzania’s national budgeting process, which is typical of situations in other countries, where adaptation commitments do no translate into funded action. Drawing on interviews and document analysis, it finds that none of the desired intermediate outcomes are currently met at any of the six steps of the annual budget cycle. The Planning and Budget Guidelines give general climate instructions but lack preparedness-specific guidance, budget codes and compliance mechanisms. Together with initial ministry budget submissions, these guidelines offer the greatest leverage, as they set the parameters for everything that follows. No single actor can change preparedness allocations alone, and those with the strongest preparedness mandates lack the authority to compel coordination or accountability.
Based on this behaavioural analysis, preparedness is displaced by barriers of opportunity (an underfunded budget, no dedicated budget codes or indicators, and weak accountability), capability (preparedness seen as a siloed concern, and uncertainty over how to budget for it) and motivation (preparedness treated as a trade-off, with attention spiking only after disasters). Because shortfalls are hard to see, the same factors that block preparedness also block the evidence needed to create pressure for change. The paper sets out three candidate pathways co-designed with the Tanzanian NGO Shahidi wa Maji: advocating for preparedness provisions in the Planning and Budget Guidelines, making the sectoral case during budget preparation, and generating accountability through monitoring and evaluation. It concludes that MABEJ can turn apparent political and institutional inertia into identifiable, actionable behavioural dynamics, making it a potential part of the toolkit for closing the adaptation implementation gap.